Decoupling Debate Will Return: Emergers Dominate in Long Run

Briefing Note
Vanessa Rossi, October 2008

'Decoupling' will be declared dead as the global economy heads into a synchronized downturn.
However, more careful assessment of the decoupling argument is needed, as it will be relevant in assessing long-term trends beyond the current crisis.
The plunge into the abyss will only be temporary - economies will recover and the emerging-market economies will once more streak ahead of the mature OECD bloc.
On the other hand, more of the high-income, high-growth newcomers could be incorporated into the OECD over time, perhaps stabilizing the OECD's share of global GDP, compared with the sharp decline seen in recent years.
The leading emergers need to be recognized as key players in the global economy and in the policy-making arena.